Annual Report 2007-2008

Mathematical Sciences

The broad objectives of the programme include specialized manpower training in general R&D, group discussions on specialized research topics, basic in-situ training for talented college students in remote areas, advanced training to talented students in Universities/Research Institutions, Interaction meets between mathematicians and prospective users and Exhibitions and other awareness programmes in mathematical sciences. The PAC-MS encouraged the following major activities during the year:

• Project entitled “Graph Theory and Combinatorial Computing with Industrial and Engineering applications – Core Group Research Facility (CGRF) at National Centre for Advanced Research in Discrete Mathematics (n-CARDMATH).
• Project proposal entitled “Building up a core group of researchers/faculty at the Centre for Mathematical Sciences Pala Campus” Arunapuram P.O., Pala.
• Three more such centers have also been established at different geographic locations to cater the needs of the whole region. One at Banaras Hindu university, Varanasi (Centre for Interdisciplinary research in Mathematical Sciences, second at Banasthali Vidyapeeth, Rajasthan (Centre for Mathematical Sciences) and third at Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore (Centre for Mathematical Biology).
• National Mathematical Sciences Initiative (NMSI) – The project was supported under IISc. Mathematical Sciences Initiative (IMI) for organizing a year-long activity on different themes. In view of success of the programme a proposal on the similar lines for a period of five years has also been supported.

National Centre for Advanced Research in Discrete Mathematics (n-CARDMATH)

The Centre was inaugurated by Hon’ble President of India on 5th January, 2007 at Kalasalingam University, Anand Nagar, Krishnan Koil (Figure 2.17) with the following objectives:

• To build highly intensive and globally competitive research groups on specific themes in Discrete Mathematics and Applications.
  
• To develop strong academic linkages with other such facilities in the world.
  
• To develop linkages with other research groups in Discrete Mathematics in our country.
  
• To organize Group Discussions, Conferences, and Workshops, Symposia, Seminars and other such short term interactive meetings relevant to theme areas pursued under the subprojects with international participants, wherever feasible.
  
• To publish high quality research papers, monographs, books etc.

Figure 2.17: Inauguration of National Centre for Advanced Research in Discrete Mathematics

Atmospheric Sciences

The Programme Advisory Committee on Atmospheric Sciences (PAC-AS) considered new projects (including one training programme) for support. 8 ongoing projects were also monitored through presentations by the concerned PIs. Two Planning Committee Meetings related to the SERC Schools were also organized during the period. Besides these, the Committee also discussed and finalized a number of policy issues related to the Programme.

The highlights on the progress/achievements related to this programme are:

New Sanctioned Projects

New projects approved and sanctioned/likely to be sanctioned during the period are Size and Chemical Composition Distribution of Particulate Matter in different Indoor Microenvironments; Chemical Composition of Precipitation and Aerosols in and around Bhubaneswar and Visakhapatnam; 3-D Simulation for Cyclone Prone Vulnerable Flood Zones and Development of Submergence Models for Preparatory Planning and Mitigation Measures during Pre-cyclone, through Cyclone and Post-cyclone; Graph Theory in the study of Severe Thunder Storms; Study of Speciation of Selected Metals in Ambient Air at Hyderabad; Atmospheric Chemical Modelling in relation to Photochemical smog over Delhi; Evaluation of Emission Factors and budget of Gases and Particulate Matter of Relevance to Climate Change Emitted by Fuels particularly Biomass Used in India by the Rural Sector and Small Scale Industries; and GPS Based TEC Measurement and Ionospheric Perturbation due to Earthquake.

Ongoing Projects

• A New Approach for Precision Measurement of Ionospheric Total Electron Content from Dual Frequency GPS Data by Osmania University, Hyderabad
  
  The project aims to estimate instrumental biases of Satellite and Receiver for improving the measurement of TEC. To meet this objective, various instrumental bias measurement techniques such as Kalman filter model, Self Calibration of Pseudo Range Error (SCORE) and Least Square Adjustment are being used. Further, prominent methods such as wide lane combination etc. are being used for resolving, the inherentn Cycle slips and Integer ambiguity of Carrier phase GPS data for precise TEC measurements.
  
  
• Coupled Lagrangain Particle Boundary Layer Model for the Dispersion of Air Pollutants by IIT, Delhi
  
  The proposal aims at implementing/improving the boundary layer model for the meteorological fields and couple it with a Lagrangian particle dispersion model to study the transport and diffusion of air pollutants.Mathematical Modeling of Dispersion of Atmospheric Aerosols by Bangalore University, Bangalore A simplified mathematical model for understanding dispersion of deformable aerosols in the atmosphere considering large sized aerosols and small sized aerosols has been developed. The results show that the large sized aerosols are favorable for formation of cloud while small sized aerosols when inhaled block trachea (wind pipe) causing breathing problem.
  
  
• Role of Space Weather Events on VHF Scintillations and VLF Waves by BHU, Varanasi
  Using crossed loop antenna along with vertical T- type antenna, VLF whistler-mode waves as a function of time and frequency are being recorded on a routine basis. The recorded data are being analyzed using software to obtain dynamic spectra to derive the information about the parameters of the medium. The effects of variability in solar and magnetic activity on the properties of ionospheric irregularities were studied and generation and propagation mechanism for various types of VLF waves are also being worked out.
  

Completed Projects

• Size-Resolved Chemical Speciation of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons in an Urban
  Atmosphere by Dayalbagh Educational Institute, Dayalbagh, Agra
  
  The study was undertaken to monitor 16 EPA priority PAH compounds in Total Suspended Particulate Matter (TSPM) with an aim to speciate and determine their ambient concentrations, identify spatial and seasonal variations and their probable sources at three different sites at Agra, each representing a background area (Dayalbagh), an industrial area (Nunhai) and a major traffic junction (NH 2).
  
  During the investigation period i.e. May 2005 to July 2007, it was found that the most abundant PAHswere B(k)F, DbA, IP, BghiP and BaP. Statistical analysis, in particular correlations between PAH concentrations and meteorological parameters (Temperature, Relative Humidity, Wind Speed, Wind Direction and Solar Intensity) highlighted the influence of meteorological parameters and revealed greater concentrations in winter than summer. Source identification by principal component analysis and evaluation of diagnostic ratios allowed the identification of vehicular emissions as the major source with larger contribution from diesel emissions.
  
  
• Atmospheric Aerosol Profiling at selected locations on the East Coast of India using a Micro pulse LIDAR by Andhra University, Visakhapatnam
  
  Micro Pulse LIDAR (MPL) system was installed at Visakhapatnam for atmospheric aerosol studies at typical environments over the eastern region of India. Using the data from the MPL system, observation of high altitude aerosol layers above the boundary layer were reported for the first time in India. The analysis showed that during 60% of the cases the air mass origin forming the layers is from Arabia while in the rest of the cases it is either from the Indian sub-continent or from Bay of Bengal which distinctly brings out the effect of non local transport from free troposphere. Observations from Kharagpur during the ISRO-GBP Campaign to characterize the North Indian haze clearly brought out the effect of boundary layer dynamics on the surface aerosol physical properties and column integrated aerosol spectral optical depths. The study also indicates high probability for the transport of the north Indian aerosol plume into Arabian Sea via Bay of Bengal and peninsular India. A study carried out on the aerosol physical properties during hazy and clear sky conditions indicates a clear aerosol subsidence during hazy conditions. The estimated reduction in surface reaching solar flux due to the presence aerosols was ~54 W/m2 during clear days and was as high as 85 W/ m2 under hazy conditions, bringing out the importance of haze characterization. With experimental data from Micro Pulse LIDAR, the cirrus cloud weather was reported for the first time from a sub-tropical Indian station, Visakhapatnam which has implications on regional radiative forcing. The Micro Pulse LIDAR data was used in conjunction with the surface BC mass concentration and the near surface aerosol mass size distribution to estimate the Aerosol BC radiative forcing over Visakhapatnam.
  
  
• Atmospheric Chemistry of Nitrous Acid and Dry and Wet Depositions by University of Rajasthan,Jaipur
  
  The detailed atmospheric kinetics of the nitrous acid reaction; 2HNO2 + O2 = 2HNO3, has been studied and the possible mechanisms outlined (Atmospheric Environment, 2007).The rate data were utilized to offer an unique explanation for extremely high rate of this reaction under fast freezing conditions, reported by several atmospheric scientists. During this work, we discovered an interesting fact that ammonia and its salt strongly retard the atmospheric oxidation of dissolved sulfur dioxide under the conditions pH > 7 and [NH3] >1x10-5 mol L-1; so far ammonia has reported to accelerate this reaction. This reaction has been studied in detail (Proceedings 2nd Accent Symposium, Urbino, Italy, 2007). The dry and wet deposition studies showed the minimum rain water pH to go down from 7.4 in 1996 to 6.78 in 2006. The methodology adopted included the periodic measurement of [O2] or aqueous [SO2] in case of kinetics studies and sampling and chemical analyses in case of deposition studies.
  
  
• Wave - Particle interaction and precipitation in low latitude ionosphere by RBS College, Bichpuri, Agra
  
  The experimental and theoretical studies carried out resulted into (i) Design and fabrication of a new PC based whistler recording and analyzing set up which has replaced the old analog method and helped saving considerable money, manual labour, and time; (ii) A new software based technique has been developed for the “Automation of Whistlers” in which the automatic dispersion analysis of whistlers can be carried out more accurately and fastly yielding useful information on dispersion and L-value of propagation; (iii) Analysis of DEMETER satellite data to show existence of earthquake induced ELF emissions in the low latitude ionosphere; (iv) Analysis of the new whistler and emissions recorded to show linear polarisation and direction of travel long distances in the earth-ionosphere waveguide; and (v) The phase and amplitude measurement using AbsPAL receiver has yielded very useful information on the effect of solar flare, Day-night, and seismicity in the propagation characteristics.

Monsoon and Tropical Climate (MONTCLIM)

Studies related to the physics and dynamics of monsoons, coupled land-ocean-atmospheric system, Agrometeorology and indigenous development of technology for atmospheric science applications are being supported under MONTCLIM program. In order to study the effect of weather and climate in the tropics, efforts are being made to improve parameterization of land-ocean-atmospheric processes in the atmospheric general circulation models (GCM). During the period under report organized one meeting of the reconstituted ‘Project Advisory and Monitoring Committee on Weather and Climate Research Programs’. A group monitoring workshop was organized to evaluate completed and the ongoing projects. The salient achievements under the above programs are as follows:

Atmospheric Dynamics and Climate Modeling

Analysis of decadal variations in the frequencies of ground-based inversions, stable and normal layers over four metropolitan cities indicated that ground-based inversions are increasing during December and January. Increase in the thickness and strength of the inversions leads stagnation of air, trapping of pollutants and hence persistent haze layer. Also, substantial decadal variations in wind direction and speed are observed.

Study on the evaluation of annual cycle and intra-seasonal variability of Indian summer monsoon using satellite OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) and atmospheric circulation data indicated that there is a considerable inter annual variability even in the slowly evolving phase of low OLR. Intra-seasonal cycle reflects active, onset, break phases and withdrawal of monsoon. Mean time-latitude cross-sections of OLR and U-wind at 850 hPa also showed the northward propagation of intra-seasonal oscillation.

Development of regional atmosphere-ocean coupled modeling strategy for predicting Indian summer monsoon is in progress. Inter-comparison of three regional climate models for their skill in simulating the mean monsoon features indicated that simulation of Indian monsoon is sensitive to the domain, boundary conditions like sea surface temperature, land surface, etc. Two regional ocean models have been used for simulating the Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures. These models are being coupled by a coupler which is under development. Modeling the biosphere-atmosphere interaction showed the influence of land surface processes on the monsoon circulation.

Completed the studies on the use of climatic predictions as input to reservoir operation models in the Mahanadi river basin. Numbers of downscaling approaches were developed to obtain hydrologic information at river basin scale from general circulation models. Monthly stream flow predictions made for Mahanadi basin using information on large scale climate features were found to be much better than those predictions made without such information. Algorithms were developed and adopted for evolving optimal reservoir operation policies and successfully applied to Hirakud reservoir operation.


Aerosols and atmosphere Interactions

Studies on seasonal and temporal variation in aerosols, black carbon and of suspended particulate matter and their impacts in Raipur region indicated the mass distribution of trace elements and water soluble ions exceeded several folds higher than the permissible limits. Studies on the impact of aerosols and gaseous pollutants in ambient air on physiological parameters of human health due to agricultural crop residue burning in and around Patiala indicated that the crop residue burning contributed towards higher levels of SPM (suspended particulate matter) all over Patiala. Respiratory parameters show significant decrease in its value after burning of crop residue, in all age groups.

Measurement of ozone concentrations showed that long-range transport of background ozone and precursor pollutants also contribute to the exceeding of critical levels for protection of vegetation. Surface ozone is much above critical levels and is a concern for human health and agricultural productivity. A chemistry transport model forced with dynamical fields study indicate the Indo-Gangetic plain region is highly vulnerable to human induced pollutant emissions and source regions of ozone precursors within which these tracers remain confined and reinforce photochemical production of ozone. Measurements in the vicinity of sugar factory indicate pollution level during nighttime are higher than the daytime.

Ocean-atmosphere interactions

Sea level variations over the Bay of Bengal have been studied using satellite altimeter data from TOPEX/ POSEIDON (T/P) mission. Maximum sea level during summer at the centre of the gyre (15N) is about +30 cm whereas the deepening of the sea level during winter is about -20 cm. The annual sea level shows a significant inter-annual variability and certain characteristic features in relation to El Nino/La Nina.

Initial results of the biogeochemical response of coastal waters off Visakhapatnam to extreme climatic events indicate even small episodic rainfall event had significant impact on the oceanic ecosystem that resulted in enhanced primary production. Dissolved oxygen levels in the subsurface waters were found to be decreased significantly below 50 m depth within a month, which may impact fishery production.

Mesoscale Modeling of High Impact Weather Events

Numerical experiments were performed using MM5 model with two nested domains and different schemes of convection to assess the short range weather prediction. The results suggest that the Grell scheme of convection is most suitable for monsoon rainfall prediction with the model resolution at 30 km. The model could predict dry and wet spells indicating that the model does not produce spurious rainfall. A weather research forecast (WRF) model has been adopted to study heavy rainfall event of June 2002 along west coast. The model produced the best prediction of the heavy rainfall events with assimilation of station data and other observations with 12 hours analysis nudging.

A variety of observational platforms were setup to collect meteorological observations over the Arabian Sea and along the west coast of India. Assimilating these observations reanalysis of the entire data sets have been carried out. The reanalysis is able to well capture the offshore trough along the west coast of India as compared with operational analysis. The mesoscale model (MM5) could be used to simulate the heavy rainfall events but is underestimated by the maximum value of the observed rainfall. Further, numerical experiments with 3D variational analysis showed that MM5 model could capture the location of heavy rainfall over the west coast of India reasonably well but underestimated the maximum value of the observed rainfall. These studies clearly demonstrate the need to further improve the model simulation by increasing the model resolution and dense network of surface and upper air observations.

Severe Thunderstorms: Observations and Regional Modeling (STORM)

The pilot phase of the STORM (Severe Thunderstorms: Observations and Regional Modeling) field campaign was organized in the eastern and north-eastern India during 15 April to 31 May 2007, 35 organizations took part in implementing the field campaigns. Laboratories were setup at Kharagpur and Guwahati to measure electric field associated parameters including raindrop size during the occurrence of thunderstorms. The data is being processed to study the evolution of electrification in storms with respect to upper air sounding observations at Kalaikunda and Guwahati. Initial results indicated that during the active phase of thunderstorm the peak lightning flash rate had reached about 35 flashes per minute and most of the electric field changes observed during active phase are negative.

Special observational studies were initiated to study thunderstorms and rain drop-size distribution using indigenously developed Wind Profiler - Radio Acoustic Sounding System (WP-RASS). The initial analysis indicated the raindrop size distribution varied from 0.9 mm to 3.75 mm. Development of hand-held Sun Photometer with capability to monitor the surface ozone and aerosol optical depths is in progress.

Agrometeorology

Studies on assessment of present carbon stocks were initiated in the natural forest ecosystems of the Kodugu district of Karnataka. Out of the five forest types, studies were completed for two forest types and laboratory analysis for soil organic carbon, major nutrients and leaf analysis for carbon is under progress. In another study on Prediction of mustard aphid based on crop-weather-aphid relationships under Punjab conditions revealed that aphid population was negatively correlated with maximum and minimum temperature whereas it was positively correlated with relative humidity. It was found that aphid attack was inversely related to growing degree days. Flowering was identified as the most sensitive stage for aphid appearance whereas maximum aphid attack was observed at pod formation stage. The results of a conceptual model developed for mustard aphid attack and date of sowing showed that the crop could be saved from aphid infestation by sowing in the month of October. Developed crop-weather-pest calendars for mustard and raya crops grown in Punjab. Microclimate data in the farmer's wheat fields in Punjab towards validating the pathogen environment interaction models of Karnal bunt disease. The study indicates the disease development after the host infection and establishment of the pathogen of Karnal bunt was critically affected by the prevalent weather conditions.

Evaluation of potential productivity of major oil seeds crops in Punjab using crop simulation models is being carried out. The field crop data, weather and soil information are put in dynamic crop growth simulation models for mustard, sunflower and groundnut. The sensitivity analysis, calibration and validation of the models using field data are in progress. In addition, validation and application of dynamic CERES-Wheat model for simulating growth and yield of wheat in temperate Kashmir is in progress.

Further experiments are being carried to study the microclimatic relations in the commercial production of cut flowers and foliage at two agroclimatic regions of Kerala, medicinal and aromatic plants in Himachal Pradesh including development of yield prediction models in banana.

The integration of medium range weather forecasts and agromet databank facility towards providing skillful advisories to the farmers of Andhra Pradesh was initiated. Five agro climatic field units located in different agro climatic regions have been selected for such detailed study.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Agro-ecosystems

Organized field experiments to quantify the Nitrous oxide emission from rice and wheat crops grown in the Tezpur region of northeast India. The seasonal integrated nitrous oxide emission recorded from rice cultivars during Sali season varied from 122 to 189 mg N2O-Nm-2 and found to be significantly correlated with soil organic carbon content, tiller number and leaf area. Where as rice varieties during Boro season varied from 190 to 216 mg N2O-Nm-2). Higher seasonal integrated nitrous oxide emissions were recorded from wheat crop varies between 312 to 384 mg N2O-Nm-2, and showed significant positive correlation with soil organic carbon content, soil temperature and soil pH. Thus there exist wide fluctuations in N2O emission rates in different varieties of rice and wheat in relation to soil and plant factors and ecosystem. Studies on nitrous oxide flux from traditional and non-traditional pulses cultivated in uplands of Orissa indicated higher emissions during day time compared to night. Further, N2O fluxes were negative during fallow period indicating soil is acting as the sink.

Impact of elevated surface ozone concentration on seed germination, photosynthetic rate, stomatal conductance, growth and yield of rice in Delhi have been studied. There was a reduction in all the growth and biochemical parameters, decrease in photosynthetic rate and chlorophyll content of leaves under elevated ozone concentrations. Where as soil microbial respiration increased and rice grain yield decreased under elevated ozone concentrations indicating significant impact on crop productivity. Initiated similar studies were also done for maize crop.

Indian Climate Research Programme (ICRP)

Studies related to temporal and spatial variability of climate, past climate and climate change and relationships between climate and agriculture are being coordinated under Indian Climate Research Program (ICRP). Special emphasis was given to evolve and implement multi-agency, multi-disciplinary coordinated field experimental campaigns to investigate the land-ocean-atmosphere interactions and their role in monsoon variability.

Summer Monsoon Prediction

Dynamical long range monsoon forecasting is an important problem with implications in varied socioeconomic sectors. Modeling the monsoon behavior towards developing an efficient monsoon prediction from 10-30 days and seasonal scale is very much essential. Completed the inter-comparison studies with global circulation model simulations during 1985 to 2004 to assess the skill in predicting the Indian summer monsoon rainfall on a seasonal scale of the different atmospheric general circulation models used in the country to generate such predictions. The results indicated that all the models are able to simulate excess rainfall years. Development of regional coupled ocean-atmospheric model is in progress.

Continental Tropical Convergence Zone (CTCZ)

A science plan on “Continental Tropical Convergence Zone (CTCZ)’ was prepared to initiate another large scale monsoon experiment to investigate the role of land-vegetation-atmosphere interactions. Organizations participated in the multi-disciplinary campaign mode observational cum modelling program.

Preparation of a detailed action plan to implement the coordinated studies during 2008-2012 periods is in progress. Preparations for conducting aircraft experiments, to study the spatial and vertical distribution of cloud condensation nuclei and hydrometeor size spectra over the Indo Gangetic region are in progress. A variant of MCLOUMM (mixed phase cloud microphysical model), Cirrus cloud microphysical model has been employed to understand the role of various particles and ice nucleation mechanisms on the evolution of ice crystal distribution in the tropics. Several project proposals are under evaluation for consideration of support to the scientific objectives of CTCZ.